Wednesday, 2 January 2019

Gold Could Be Attractive In 2019 On Likely Lower Bond Yields, Weaker Dollar

When 2018 began, MCX gold was hovering around Rs 29,150 per 10 gram. Throughout the year prices continued moving in a broad range, though with a positive bias, from Rs 29,100 to Rs 32,000 due to the depreciation of the home currency. However, the upside was capped due to persistent weakness in international gold prices on account of less investment demand.

The protectionist policies of the US administration supported a rally in the dollar index instead of in gold. Therefore, the greenback rose sharply from 88 to 97. Later in the year, though, due to nose-diving crude-oil prices, domestic sentiment improved and supported an appreciation of the rupee, which recovered from an all-time low.

Hence, overall, MCX gold has appreciated by nearly 8 percent with the fall in the rupee of approximately 10 percent. Nevertheless, returns on Comex gold to international traders have been a negative 2.2 percent. The major driver of the rally in gold, i.e., investment demand in the form of ETFs, has not been so active this year, barring October, November and December.

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